Catastrophic wildfire smoke is projected to claim numerous lives by the year 2050, predicts new study
In a groundbreaking study published in the journal Nature, researchers have projected that wildfire smoke, intensified by rising temperatures, could become one of America's deadliest climate disasters, causing up to 2 million deaths over the next three decades.
The endangerment finding, a scientific determination made during the Obama era that greenhouse gases pose a threat to public health, has been used as the legal basis for strict limits on industrial sources of greenhouse gas emissions. However, the Trump administration has proposed repealing this finding, which could have significant implications for the future of climate change mitigation efforts.
The new research, led by Marshall Burke, an environmental economist at Stanford University, estimates that exposure to wildfire smoke will cause an estimated 70,000 American deaths per year by 2050 due to climate change. The West Coast, particularly California, is projected to experience the most significant increase in wildfire smoke pollution and related deaths.
The study found that even under a more moderate climate scenario, the death toll from wildfire smoke would remain high, reaching some 67,000 annual deaths by 2050. Kai Chen, an associate professor at the Yale School of Public Health, stated that the study shows wildfire smoke is a nationwide problem tied to climate change.
The researchers included wildfire data from both Canada and Mexico in the study to capture cross-border impacts. They used death records, satellite data, and ground data on wildfire smoke pollution to measure its effects on mortality. Analyzing the effects of smoke, which travels vast distances and may cause health problems years after exposure, is particularly difficult.
The study also highlighted the dangers of wildfire smoke in urban areas, where it contains burning plastic, concrete, and car parts, becoming even more harmful. In January 2021, large wildfires in Los Angeles County destroyed entire neighborhoods in Altadena and the Palisades, underscoring the devastating impact of wildfires on American communities.
Some firefighters who fought these fires without masks have since developed serious cancers, according to a New York Times investigation. Linking health problems or deaths to a specific environmental event is challenging for scientists, as they must isolate the effects of a single cause among all possible factors.
The effects of wildfire smoke will also be felt nationwide, with New York potentially seeing as many as 1,800 additional deaths, and nearly as many in Washington state and Texas. In Pennsylvania, as many as 1,600 additional people could die. More than half of the nationwide smoke mortalities would occur in Eastern states.
Greenhouse gases, like carbon dioxide and methane, trap heat in Earth's atmosphere and have caused the planet to warm about 1.3 degrees Celsius since the industrial revolution. The implications of this warming are far-reaching, with wildfire smoke being just one of many environmental hazards exacerbated by climate change.
The study, which is the most robust estimate yet of how deadly wildfire smoke could become as the planet warms, underscores the urgency of addressing climate change and implementing effective strategies to mitigate its impacts. The findings serve as a stark reminder of the interconnectedness of environmental, health, and societal issues, and the need for comprehensive, coordinated action to protect public health and safety.
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